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A bearing service life prediction methodology and tutorial indexed to eight probable causes for bearing failure and removal are presented - including fatigue. Bearing life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Bearing manufacturers' catalogue (L10) bearing life is based on rolling-element fatigue failure, at which time 90% of a population of bearings can be reasonably expected to survive, and 10% to fail by fatigue. However, approximately 95% of all bearings are removed for cause before reaching their L10 life. A bearing failure can be defined as when the bearing is no longer fit for its intended purpose. For a single bearing, you can only predict the probability of a failure occurring at a designated time - but not the actual time to failure.
Until now the estimation of rolling bearing life has been based on engineering models that consider an
equivalent stress, originated beneath the contact surface, that is applied to the stressed volume of the
rolling contact. Through the years, fatigue surface–originated failures, resulting from reduced lubrication or
contamination, have been incorporated into the estimation of the bearing life by applying a penalty to the
overall equivalent stress of the rolling contact. Due to this simplification, the accounting of some specific
failure modes originated directly at the surface of the rolling contact can be challenging. In the present
article, this issue is addressed by developing a general approach for rolling contact life in which the surfaceoriginated
damage is explicitly formulated into the basic fatigue equations of the rolling contact. This is
achieved by introducing a function to describe surface-originated failures and coupling it with the traditional,
subsurface-originated fatigue risk of the rolling contact. The article presents the fundamental theory of the
new model and its general behavior. The ability of the present general method to provide an account for
the surface–subsurface competing fatigue mechanisms taking place in rolling bearings is discussed with
reference to endurance testing data.